Heading towards Election Day, this is a review of “what’s at stake” and some scenarios for “what will likely happen” as a result of the 2014 elections.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014: Election Day
There will be no Congressional activity between 9/15/14 and 11/4/14 unless related to an emergency. Currently there is no Congressional “will” to be any place but on the campaign trail. (Survival is the first rule of politics.)
Absentee Voting (pre-voting) has begun in most all states. Cast your vote now or on 11/4. The parties covet early votes as they can’t be changed should some political nightmare manifest in the final days of the campaign.
The GOP is expected to hold a solid House Majority position. And Republicans could gain a slim Senate Majority position. A GOP Senate takeover moves the responsibility for gridlock from the Hill to the White House, where Mr. Obama sits with his veto pen.
Monday, December 4, 2014: Congress’s “Lame Duck” session convenes
House and Senate members who will not be returning in January 2015 will still be able to vote on legislation minus any threat of ballot box accountability. If Harry Reid will still be running the Senate in 2015, it is less likely that “crazy” stuff is floated during the “Lame Duck” session.
If the GOP wins a Senate majority for 2015, Majority Leader Reid will introduce fixes for immigration, continue an attempt to have the Senate control political speech and will move to replace Attorney General Eric Holder with someone like minded.
Monday, January 3, 2015: Newly Elected Congress Convenes
If Harry Reid remains as Senate Majority Leader in 2015, we get 2 more years of congressional gridlock and “Executive Order” legislation.
If the GOP has the Senate Majority, budgets will once again be offered and approved, “Executive Orders” will be challenged and “common sense” bi-partisan bills will be passed.
Hotly Contested Senate Seats 
Republicans are likely to win:
- Alaska Senate - Seat held by Mark Begich (D)
- Georgia Senate - Open seat
- Kentucky Senate - Sen. Mitch McConnell
- Mississippi Senate - Sen. Thad Cochran
- Nebraska Senate - Open seat
- North Carolina Senate - Seat held by Kay Hagan (D)
- South Carolina Senate - Sen. Lindsey Graham
- Tennessee Senate - Sen. Lamar Alexander
Democrats are likely to win:
- Hawaii Senate - Open seat
The GOP is likely to gain six seats and the Senate Majority position with them. But a national crisis, an upswing in Mr. Obama’s popularity or surprises in individual contests could prevent this from happening.
Some Future Developments
How Mr. Obama handles the ISIS crisis plays directly into Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the Democrat’s presidential nomination. If ISIS is still a major threat come the summer of 2016, Ms. Clinton’s track record in the Middle East could be a strong negative for her. The Democrats may opt for a more “winnable” General Election candidate. The same is true if any part of the Benghazi debacle is verified and becomes widely known.
Should the GOP hold the House and the Senate come 2015 they will have to deliver real legislation. If they can lead the nation away from gridlock, the national mood will begin to shift positive. If they can deliver sound legislation addressing immigration reform, Social Security reform and our need for military redevelopment and national security, they will likely be the party of the next President of the United States come 2017.
Keep an eye on Sen. Bernie Sanders [I-VT] who is toying with a run for the presidency as an Independent. Such a campaign has no chance of success but could bring $10-20 million into Sanders’ campaign accounts. Sanders could also be a “Ralph Nader” factor, siphoning off Democrat/Progressive votes on the left and throwing the election to the Republican candidate.
- Pray that the Father’s choices would prevail in this election season.
- Pray that Christians across the nation would exercise their right and duty to vote.
- Pray that the Congress being elected has a higher sense of calling that mere party politics and a heart for values-based reformation of our government.